Financials
$500K SAFE at a $10M valuation cap. All figures projected; base case modeled bottom-up from owned audience and confirmed pricing.
SaaS benchmark is 3–5x. Holds at 7x even under a 2x stress-test on CAC assumptions.
Acquired through owned channels. Jobber and ServiceTitan spend $2,000–$5,000 per customer.
ARR Progression
Ending Annual Recurring Revenue, 3-Year Projection
Unit Economics
Gross margin & LTV:CAC by year
Cash flow positive in Month 7 on a $500K raise.
Max cumulative deficit: $77.5K. Avg monthly burn drops from $42K to $25K after the initial product sprint.
Exit Context, 4–6 Years
3-Year Financial Summary
Full Documents| Metric | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ending Customers | 1,540 | 6,000 | 10,000 |
| Weighted Avg ARPU | $53/mo | $75/mo | $80/mo |
| Ending ARR | $1.02M | $5.56M | $9.77M |
| Gross Margin | 85% | 88% | 90% |
| Blended CAC | $75 | $100 | $150 |
| LTV | $693 | $1,467 | $2,057 |
| LTV:CAC | 9x | 15x | 14x |
| Monthly Churn | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Operating Income | $82K | $1.96M | $5.14M |
| Operating Margin | 13% | 56% | 66% |
Year 1 Sensitivity, Customer Volume
ARPU fixed to bottom-up model; sensitivity reflects customer volume only.
| Scenario | Customers | Ending ARR | CF Positive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic (+20%) | 1,850 | $1.24M | Month 7 |
| Base Case | 1,540 | $1.02M | Month 7 |
| Conservative (−20%) | 1,230 | $800K | Month 10 |
Year 1 Customer Acquisition
Zero cold-start risk, all growth from Ryan's owned audience.
Blended CAC: $75 vs. $2,000–$5,000 for Jobber/ServiceTitan
ARPU Progression, Bottom-Up Quarterly Model
Built from actual pricing tier mix. Founding cohort ($39/$49 locked) dilutes blended ARPU in Year 1; tiered pricing drives step-up in Year 2.
| Quarter | ARPU | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 Year 1 (2026) | $49.63 | Founding cohort dominant |
| Q4 Year 1 (2026) | $54.86 | $59 market customers 64% of base |
| Q5 Year 2 (2027), Tiered Launch | $66.25 | Tiered pricing live ($59/$129/$199); new customers at $83.50 blended |
| Q8 Year 2 (2027) | $78.11 | Upgrade ramp completing; founding cohort 9% of base |
| Q12 Year 3 (2028) | $81.30 | Full-tier mix; founding cohort 5% of base |
Monthly gross profit first exceeds monthly operating costs
Cumulative operating loss never exceeds this (Month 6 trough)
Months 1–8 during product sprint; drops to $25K in Months 9–12
$500K raise, funds product development, not operating losses